Supply and demand at the trading deadline

(Originally appeared on Sports-Central.org, 2004)

I’m haunted by ghosts.

Fortunately, it’s not like you see in the movies. In fact, ghostly apparitions aren’t bad once you get used to them.

When I was younger, it was pretty cool getting visitations from dead rock stars, politicians and polar explorers (Me: So what was it like on the South Pole? Roald Amundsen, in a thick Norwegian accent: Cold.).

Lately, however, I’ve been seeing dead economists. How pathetic is that?

Recently, John Maynard Keynes dropped by with a challenge for Milton Friedman in a best-of-five-falls cage match to settle the whole social-welfare-vs.-supply-side debate once and for all.

And last week, I woke from an absolutely scrummy dream about an all-you-can-eat buffet to find Adam Smith sitting at the foot of my bed.

Smith – author of “The Wealth of Nations,” regarded as the seminal work in the capitalist philosophy – wanted to discuss his economic theories as they applied to the Major League Baseball trading deadline.

“Look,” said Smith, waving a copy of the July 19 daily newspaper. “There are 21 teams within five games of a playoff berth one week beyond the All-Star break. That hasn’t happened since, well, ever.”

“So what’s your point?” I said.

“Did you sleep through economics?” Smith yelled, flecks of powder falling from his wig. “More than two-thirds of Major League Baseball is still in the playoff chase, convinced that they are one left-handed pitcher, one power hitter, one slick-fielding shortstop away from the playoffs.”

Once there, I told Smith, anyone can win the World Series, as Arizona, Anaheim and Florida have so aptly shown over the last three years.

“Exactly,” he said. “But there are only nine teams demonstrably out of the playoff race. That means there is a lot of demand for talented players on non-contending teams ...”

“... but a shortage of supply,” I finished.

“And that means ...”

“The price for those players increases,”

Actually, that’s already been happening, I said. Pittsburgh general manager David Littlefield announced that he won’t trade Kris Benson for anything less than at least one minor leaguer who is ready to play in the majors now.

That’s Kris Benson, a right-handed pitcher who has had an injury-plagued career, a 7-7 record this year with an ERA in the mid fours, and is six games under .500 lifetime.

But over the last six weeks, Benson’s been hotter than the videos he told Penthouse magazine he made with his wife and, as a result, Littlefield just might get what he’s asking for, I told Smith.

Except for the Diamondbacks’ Randy Johnson, Benson is the most sought-after player at this year’s trading deadline. And the Big Unit might not be available for trade – even if he is, no one other than the Yankees, St. Louis or Anaheim need apply.

For everyone else, Benson is the top-shelf acquisition. Among those teams still in the race, pitching help is at the top of the wish list, especially for Texas, Atlanta, Cincinnati, San Diego, San Francisco, Philadelphia and, who am I kidding, everybody except for Chicago.

That, according to Smith’s theories, make every pitcher a more precious commodity. It’s a different story with hitters.

The list of teams looking for offense is more limited – everybody with a realistic playoff hope already has some punch at the plate. But the supply there is smaller too.

Teams with good young hitters want to keep them in order to build for next year. And these days, 32-year-old Danny Bautista of the Diamondbacks qualifies as a good young hitter.

A more intriguing possibility is that contenders looking for offense should check out the bargain bin. That’s where they might find two injury-riddled veterans.

It’s definitely a buyers’ market for Larry Walker and Carlos Delgado, said Smith.

Six years ago, Walker appeared to be a shoo-in Hall-of-Famer. Now, thanks to a near-unbroken run of injuries, he’s a 38-year-old playing out the string. Because he’s been banged up, Walker has appeared in only about two dozen games this year. But he has hit well when he has played.

Colorado’s one-time superstar is looking for a ring and might just have enough left under the hood to lift a team into the playoffs.

Delgado, 32, who is only two years removed from a triple crown run, has seen his batting average mired in the low .200s this year because of injuries. But if the Blue Jays’ star gets healthy late in the season, he could still be the kind of player who can affect a playoff race.

That approach has already worked for the White Sox, who pried Carl Everett from Montreal last week. The former Boston slugger, hampered with injuries this season, has been knocking the ball lopsided for Chicago.

“And they got him rock cheap – two minor-league pitchers,” said Smith, as he got up from his seat on my bed.

“Gotta go,” he said, tipping his three-corner hat.

“One more thing before you leave,” I said. “How do you know so much about baseball?”

Baseball, it seems, is the favorite sport in heaven, Smith said.

“It’s a matter of demographics. We’ve got a lot of former senior citizens up there.”

“Well then, who’s going to win the World Series?” I asked

Smith stopped at the top of the stairs.

“Well,” he said. “The Big Guy doesn’t tell us these things, but there are indications.

“While we get baseball, they have to watch figure skating in hell. Until recently, it was available only on TV, but last spring, in preparation for Tonya Harding’s arrival, Satan finally installed a working ice rink down there.”

I blinked.

“So hell has frozen over, which means ...”

The father of modern capitalism finished my sentence.

“... It’s gotta be the Cubs or the Red Sox.”

(Note: Boston won the World Series that year.)